re: #318 NO SMOCKING GUN!

I assume the thinking is that with Trump on the ballot, assuming he runs again and his Administration hasn’t totally melted down, more of his base will turn out than they did in the midterms. But a lot could happen between now and election day to upset those assumptions.

I mean, he got the 2016 election pretty well right, and he got the 2018 midterms even more right - almost spot on, in fact, which is astounding considering the huge variance in play in midterms. He’s got a decent track record and his methodology is usually sound. But there are so many variables still in play, and there’s a lot of time left on the clock before November 2020.