re: #325 KGxvi

I’m curious to see what polling says in some states that we don’t normally see a lot of numbers - Texas, the Great Plains states, etc. Having experienced the shift in California following Prop 187, I could see Trump doing something like that to Texas. I could also see general election voters being turned off by Trump’s shenanigans (keep in mind, the primary electorate is about a third of the electorate in the general) in some of those states that would normally vote for the Republican nominee. Perhaps I’m too optimistic that people will eventually realize that Trump is a dumpster fire rolling downhill…

Real Clear Politics has a nifty demographic calculator where you can adjust the vote percentage of different ethnicities and speculate what that would do to the Republican vote vis a vis the 2012 election. In a sane world, you would have to think that hispanics would be motivated to turn out against Trump, and that he would be lucky to get 10% of the their vote, given his demonstrably insane comments about mass deportations and building “the wall” (not to mention making Mexico pay for it). So if hispanic turnout increases to 55% (from 48% in 2012), and if Trump polls only 10%, what you talk about would definitely happen - Texas would flip to the Democrats, and Arizona might as well. Indiana would even be in reach.