re: #27 Mattand

There are a number of worst case projections that try to estimate how many cases are actually occurring and one of the worse case scenarios is well over 1 million cases in Africa by end of January. The CDC has a worst case scenario of 500k+ and all the scenarios include all the cases that have been actually identified as well as those that aren’t but suspected. But even those scenarios are based on anecdotal information and assume that the affected countries can’t get a handle on limiting the spread.

Nigeria appears to have limited the spread there - and their patient zero was in many respects like the case here - the patient flew in from the hot zone.

550k - CDC.

1.4 million cases - via the NYT.

The NYT report also includes the possibility of home care being integral to stopping the outbreak, culling data and experience from the smallpox eradication efforts 50 years ago.