re: #343 Dark_Falcon

They’ll have to take the base first, and I doubt they will be able to do that. Given ISIS’s habit of executing soldiers after they have surrendered, I don’t think the defenders are just going to give up. Further, those bases are designed to be defended and attacking them will require ISIS to cross ground stripped of all cover. Balad’s gunships will also take a heavy toll on any attacking force as it moves up.

I don’t see ISIS winning this fight.

From the Beast article.

Jessica Lewis—the research director for the Institute for the Study of War and a former U.S. Army intelligence officer who served in Iraq—told The Daily Beast, “It would mean that ISIS can beat the best that the Iraqi Army can muster, not just the northern units that have been ignored. It would mean strategic defeat for the Iraqi Army.”

Lewis estimates that Balad and neighboring Taji base are likely some of the next targets of the ISIS campaign. “Both of these bases are critical military sites for the Iraqi Army. Neutralizing one or both would demonstrate that ISIS can beat the Iraqi Army strategically.”

We shall see soon enough. It seems US airstrikes are off the table for the moment and I’m not sure if the Iranians can get there in time. The Iraqis on their own haven’t done so well thus far.