re: #36 moderatelyradicalliberal

You’re right he’d have about a 25% chance, up from 20%. But Nate hasn’t changed his EC map.

Mr. Silver’s predictions aren’t based on snapshots of today’s polls. They’re much more backward looking (for good reason) and therefore include polls taken before the debate. If you held the election right now I’d put Mr. Romney’s chances considerably higher than 25%, but still less than 50%, primarily since I don’t believe enthusiasm would yet be enough to carry him over the top in Ohio. Of course that’s all just opinion, and has no bearing on where we’ll be in a month. I agree that Mr. Obama remains the favorite in November. However, I expect Mr. Silver’s model to tighten again when it is updated today.