Nate Silver’s analysis of the upcoming 2014 Senate races gives the GOP a slight edge, and potentially picking up enough seats to retake the Senate. Only just at that.

Here’s @NateSilver538’s prognosis for each Senate race this fall pic.twitter.com/bsE9QGDTWL

— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) March 24, 2014

And let’s note what’s going on here. Nearly all the incumbents are going to win reelection in Silver’s analysis. It’s the open seats that were formerly in D hands that look like they may go over to the GOP. In other words, it’s the typical kind of election, not a sea change, but it increases pressure on the Democrats to hold what they have, and for the GOP to continue their anti-ACA nonsense, only to have to pivot to something else if they return to power (because they’ve spent the last 5 years talking nothing but deny, delay, destroy Obamacare).