re: #421 Jay C

This seems fairly accurate. The NYT published a (“Last”) poll today showing Biden/Harris numbers for seven “battleground” states, and the aggregate (with only one exception*) showed Joe/Kamala still winning all but one, even with their “qualifying exception” - which were numbers based on the assumption that “polls were off as much as they were in 2016”. Which seems to me to be a pretty thin reed to base assumptions on. Like generals prepping to fight the last war, pollsters always seem to be sampling to gauge the last election…

*North Carolina

polls were not ‘off as much as they were’ in 2016
- there was a lack of last minute polling in WI, MI, PA
- educational background was not taken into account as a crosstab factor

- ‘the polls’ predicted there was a chance trump could win. he did.
- off the top of my head, clinton did perform within the moe

what was ‘off’?