re: #465 Kragar

A poll is a hypothesis. Rallies and social media presence are empirical evidence. A hypothesis unsupported by empirical evidence is wrong.

A poll is an experiment. It tests the hypothesis that voters feel differently about the candidates. It tests that hypothesis by asking them. That is an observation. This observation may allow the pollster to reach a conclusion that one candidate is favored by more voters than the other.

Numbers and enthusiasm at rallies are also an observation. They tell you about the people AT THAT RALLY. They tell you nothing about the people NOT at that rally, who vastly outnumber the people at that rally.

Social media presence is also an observation that tells you only about the participants.

The thing is, of these three types of observations, one has proven a reliable predictor of election results, and the other two have not. Ask Bernie Sanders.