re: #555 freetoken

I’ve read some opinions, seemingly informed opinions, that the well structure itself is compromised and will continue to degrade, and that eventually oil and gas will come out below the cap, even from the sea floor where it was spudded. Don’t know if this is true or not, but if anything like that happens then truly the relief wells are the only thing that can help.

Absolutely true. And this is why I’m skeptical that the first two relief wells will work. Apparently this well was not under control for months and they were losing circulation resulting unusually high mud bills. The relief wells will have the same problem, injecting into a leaky formation. This could lead to the relief well failing, or collapse of the formation right above the reservoir. Or it could result increasing the leak.

Next, there is some choking going on somewhere, this is likely some cement, or rock. This can erode with all the pressure and flow.

Then there is the danger of additional damage to the formation allowing the oil to find a path to the surface bypassing the well-head, a real wild well. I believe this is why they gave up on the mud kill so quickly and ruled out the second BOP. They don’t think it would hold and are better off letting a reduced flow continue than risk a read free flow.

This was likely a really big find. Probably ten times what BP was letting out.