re: #596 Kragar (Proud to be Kafir)

Short of a nuclear or large scale bio/chem attack, there is no way to knock out that much artillery before it does massive damage to Seoul. Any attempt to move sufficient conventional forces to deal with it quickly would be easily seen and North Korea would simply start firing.

Ok, Kragar, what is this magical North Korean artillery that can flatten Seoul from a range of over 40 km? Look at the map, people. This “thousands of cannons within range of Seoul” meme is a myth, bullshit no matter how much it is repeated by contrarian media. The closest point to the demarcation line in Seoul proper is in the west, just south of the suburb of Goyang, where it is 36 km. Most of the city lies well beyond that distance, since the demarcation line takes a turn northward just opposite Seoul.

Of North Korea’s 13000+ artillery pieces, only the handful of 180mm S-23s and a few 130mm M-46s could reach any part of Seoul and only then if they were deployed right on the DMZ and equipped with special ammunition the Norks are not known to have, and would not have in large amounts even if they did. Part of Goyang is vulnerable to conventional shells from the long range Nork artillery, but again only if they are moved across the DMZ and deployed right on the line, an extremely unlikely exercise. North Korea’s multiple launch rocket systems are harder to conceal or protect and have no more range than the tube artillery.

There are hundreds of ballistic missiles but, again, their effectiveness is vastly exaggerated in media accounts. All 650 of them would have about the fire-power of a 100 plane RAF or USAAF raid in World War2, something German cities could and did shake off on a regular basis. Of course, not all the Nork missiles would be expended against Seoul, since this would leave nothing for airfields or ports elsewhere.

By concentrating their entire obsolete air force in one sector, the Norks probably can overwhelm part of the air defense system and do major damage. They could only do this once however, since it would entail the loss of most of their aircraft.

South Korean officials know all this, whether the media do or not. They are indeed weighing the threat against tolerating an ever escalating series of North Korean outrages and extortion attempts. It doesn’t balance the way the conventional pundits think, however.

There is going to be war.