re: #68 ProTARDISLiberal

The National Hurricane Center has noted this with Hurricanes as well.

Intensity forecasting in general is a crapshoot.

In general, yes, but hurricane intensity can at least generally be ballparked. At best, for tornadoes, they can say that the atmosphere has energy sufficient to support high energy (e.g., more destructive) tornadoes. Trying to predict which of two tornadoes might be stronger, however, is pretty much impossible. With two hurricanes, they have a better track record, although there’s still plenty of room to improve it.