I wish I shared the optimism of most posters here.

I think the GOP has at least even odds of winning the white house in 2012.

- The Afghanistan war will be thoroughly Obama’s war by then, and of course, we won’t have made much progress.
- There are very few economists that predict the job market will be significantly better in 2012. Voters will blame Obama for that.
- There is a good chance that the situation in the Middle East will deteriorate. Some voters will see this as a result of Obama’s foreign policy.
- If the Middle East situation does deteriorate, oil prices will skyrocket, further weakening the economy.
- The Bush tax cuts will expire soon after the 2012 election. It is an issue the GOP can use to scare voters away from Obama.
- The Citizens United decision means that the next presidential election cycle will have FAR more big donors flooding the cable channels and the internet with insane propaganda. This next election has no precendent in that respect.
- Obama won because of a wave of enthusiasm among young voters. Given that the economic situation is unlikely to improve significantly, these same voters will be a little older, and a lot more pissed off. The young are the ones suffering the most in this job market.

I don’t see the 2012 race being nearly so easy for Obama as people seem to think it is. Never underestimate the stupidity of the American people.