re: #82 lawhawk

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If you think that GOP Math is tough, consider that every other GOPer who is left in the field would have to win an even greater number of remaining delegates. And I think his math is wrong too.

Luntz assumes that the other candidates wont drop out as their timeframe to close the gap closes. He also assumes that the other candidates will somehow magically outperform their performance to date.

Rubio’s only managed to win a single state. Cruz won a handful, including his home state. That’s not exactly confidence building. Kasich hasn’t won anything anywhere, and he’s still in. Carson has decided to snooze through the rest of the campaign.

Given the nearly 1,715 remaining delegates, and that you need to get to 1,237, this means that Rubio would have to collect… 65% of the remaining delegates.

Cruz would have to collect 58%.

Trump would have to collect 53%.

Here’s my math - take the delegates needed to win (1,237) subtract the candidate’s take so far, then divide that by the total number of delegates remaining.

Or is that not how you would compute the percentage of remaining delegates to win?

That also ignores that there are quite a few winner take all primaries in the GOP, so even if Trump wins 40% in state X. and Rubio and Cruz get 30 each%, Trump gets all the delegates from state X.

I just don’t know how you force Rubio on the delegates without some extremely pissed off people. As you get at, Rubio has one state win to his credit. Cruz can probably actually argue he’s a better anti-Trump than RUbio can at this point.