Comment

'Irreducible Complexity' Shot Down in Flames

876
Salamantis8/28/2009 11:12:37 am PDT

Let me render it even clearer; your pitiful denial that you were engaging in a petty passive-aggressive jab at me possesses no credibility whatsoever.

And the Bristol study, published just late last month, closely corroborates the most recent IPCC estimate of global sea level rise in the next century:

Constraints on future sea-level rise from past sea-level change
nature.com

It is difficult to project sea-level rise in response to warming climates by the end of the century, especially because the response of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to warming is not well understood1. However, sea-level fluctuations in response to changing climate have been reconstructed for the past 22,000 years from fossil data, a period that covers the transition from the Last Glacial Maximum to the warm Holocene interglacial period. Here we present a simple model of the integrated sea-level response to temperature change that implicitly includes contributions from the thermal expansion and the reduction of continental ice. Our model explains much of the centennial-scale variability observed over the past 22,000 years, and estimates 4–24 cm of sea-level rise during the twentieth century, in agreement with the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change1 (IPCC). In response to the minimum (1.1 C) and maximum (6.4 C) warming projected for AD 2100 by the IPCC models, our model predicts 7 and 82 cm of sea-level rise by the end of the twenty-first century, respectively. The range of sea-level rise is slightly larger than the estimates from the IPCC models of 18–76 cm, but is sufficiently similar to increase confidence in the projections.

Sal: in other words, the lower limits of the coming century’s sea level rise range, in the two studies, from 7 to 18 cm (less than last century), while the upper limits range from 76 to 82 cm (less than a meter). The three meter scenario is more that three times their upper limit estimates, while your ten meter scenario represents, quite simply and unequivocally, a shotgun wedding between messianic sensationalist alarmism and sheer pseudoscientific stupidity.

I, otoh, have embraced the possibility that the upper limits of the two studies may be exceeded by a full 25%, leading to a single meter rise in global sea levels in the next hundred years.

Which goes to show people who between us is, and who is not, following the science.