You guys are confusing cash flow and cash balance. The trust fund still has a positive balance. But that wasn’t the question.

The federal deficit is, by definition, the difference between federal outlays and federal revenues. The outlays include social security payments and the revenues include the social security payroll tax. The difference between these two is projected to be $130B.

Social security’s deficit is included in the federal deficit, and makes up about 8% of it.