re: #83 Blind Frog Belly White

The process is still a complete unknown, and the conditions under which it happened can only be guessed at.

And one might waggishly suggest the probability is actually 1, since it apparently happened.
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Basic steps that had to happen are known. He has an overview of what is known and not known. I wouldn’t try to catch Koonin in a beginner’s mistake in his own field. Which doesn’t mean that he is right - smart people can have quirky ideas. Me? I have no idea. Let the experts fight it out between themselves.