re: #217 Buck

We actually disagree on this. I think the Iranian leadership (Mullahs) are watching NK very closely. They know that the US and Israel can do nothing to stop them from making a weapon.

I also don’t think they believe that they will be retaliated against with Nukes. I don’t think they would even admit to using the nuke in the first place, but would get a proxy to deliver it. Much like Hezbollah, or Hamas it will be “third party bad actors” that do the actual attack, and although they will condemn the “terrorists”, it will be a case of “chickens coming home to roost”.

That scenario is certainly theoretically possible. But the Iranians have to ask them selves “Who in the world do we trust with a nuclear weapon?” I’d be really surprised if that question yields a long list. They would also have to ask themselves whether, if a nuke were detonated inside Israel, there was any force on Earth that could stop the Israelis from putting a couple into Tehran. Because my read of the Israelis is that it would be a sure thing.

So if you are Iran, and you aren’t suicidal as a nation (which I don’t think they are, their posturing aside) you have to ask yourself whether letting a proxy (if you can find one you trust enough) detonate one inside Israel is a good idea, seeing as it creates a high risk that your nation as you know it would cease to exist shortly thereafter.