re: #32 aagcobb

Trump has high unfavorables which I believe put a ceiling on him which will prevent his nomination. I learned last time around that the establishment will usually get its candidate even if he is flawed. I thought there was no way the man who enacted the model for Obamacare could be nominated for President by the GOP, but Charles correctly predicted that Romney would be the nominee even when he was struggling to stay ahead of the likes of Santorum and Gingrich. Don’t get me wrong, I would love for Trump to be the GOP nominee; I just don’t think its likely we will be that lucky.

This would all hold true if GOP wasn’t a rapidly de-volving organism. I’m not sure how long it will remain reasonable to forecast the future based on past primary contests. We’re already seeing some breaking with those models, by all rights Santorum should be the favorite based on his second place finish last time around, since that held true in 2008 and 2012.

Jeb is also showing himself to be amazingly uncharismatic, failing so far to even clear the low hurdle left by Romney. I’m seriously unimpressed.