re: #380 Big Beautiful Door

I disagree. Based on the recent polling, its not at all unreasonable to believe that Trump has about one-chance-in-three of winning, despite how uncomfortable that makes us. We need to be stressed that there is a distinct possibility that Trump could win this thing, dog forbid.

And again I’ll say that confidence is not complacency. I don’t discount that there is the chance that Trump could still win, but I do doubt that his chances are as great as Nate is predicting. To give an idea, Nate is the only guy of the pollsters on The Upshot who is saying that Trump has a better than 20% chance of winning New Hampshire.