re: #425 HappyWarrior

Being reasonably confident in 278 ain’t bad. Honestly I feel pretty good. The only Obama state I don’t feel too bullish on is Iowa. I was feeling that way about Ohio too but then I saw the early vote turnout photos and I feel that it’s winnable though I think it will be by a tight margin- this is where her ground game will be vital.

OH may be more gettable than the polls the past month have indicated. One poll from there over the weekend had her up by 1. Remember that campaigns (normal campaigns anyway) use internal polls, which can differ from and are usually considered more reliable than public polls. So I understand that the campaign has been more bullish on OH than many pundits.

But I’m not counting on Ohio.