re: #3 KGxvi

historically, presidential job approval has been a decent indicator of an incumbent’s re-election chances. Obama in June 2012 and Bush in 2004 were hovering around 48-50%. Trump in June 2020 was down around 40%, as was GHW Bush in 1992. Clinton was well above 50% at the same stage in 1996; as was Reagan in 1984.

That said, this election is a historical outlier. We haven’t had a major party nominate someone three times in a row since FDR. We haven’t had a rematch since 1956. We haven’t had a former president seek to return to the office since TR.

I’m wondering if the statement that Biden is losing support among black voters is based on the poll that had stupidly small sample size.

I could be in full denial, but based on post-Dobbs elections and the fact that Trump hasn’t gotten any more popular, I simply don’t believe polling that shows Trump with significant leads in battleground states.