re: #58 Mike Lamb

I’m wondering if the statement that Biden is losing support among black voters is based on the poll that had stupidly small sample size.

I could be in full denial, but based on post-Dobbs elections and the fact that Trump hasn’t gotten any more popular, I simply don’t believe polling that shows Trump with significant leads in battleground states.

It is possible that Biden is losing support and rather than those voters going to Trump, they are considering not voting (or voting third party). This election is likely going to hang on turn out more than anything. If Biden gets similar turn out to 2020, he will win in a walk. If Trump’s turn out is closer to 2016 than it is to 2020, he’s got no shot.

My gut still says this is going to end up being a blow out for Biden. I just can’t imagine that a third bite at the apple for Trump is going to generate a lot of support. And as more people tune in over the course of the summer (and starting in 2 weeks when they have the first debate), I think it’s very possible that the bottom falls out of Trumps support. He will be in the news and on TV daily, and a lot of people are going to remember why they don’t like him and want him nowhere near the levers of power.