Bottom line: Lance Armstrong probably isn’t going to make it to the podium in this year’s Tour de France. This morning was the first serious mountain stage, with two very difficult Category 1 climbs, and Armstrong couldn’t hang. He ended up almost 12 minutes behind in the General Classification.

And there are several more difficult climbing stages in the Alps coming up this week. Unless Armstrong makes an incredible recovery, he may have to grit his teeth and be happy with winning seven Tours in a row.