Review & Update on the link between global warming and hurricanes

Science • October 2009 • Views: 830

As the world continues to suffer a “depression” in global tropical cyclone activity with activity at 30-year lows, and hurricane forecasters try to keep busy while watching the listless Atlantic, I thought that for those who haven’t been reading this blog for the past 5 years (which I assume is most everyone;-) it would be worth reviewing a bit of the history of the science on hurricanes and global warming, and how that science was ignored by the IPCC.

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13 comments

Charles Johnson Fri, Oct 16, 2009 2:02:09pm

Absolute crap. More propaganda from climate change deniers.

Charles Johnson Fri, Oct 16, 2009 2:03:27pm

The fantastical falsehoods of Roger Pielke, Jr., Part 143

FoolsMate Fri, Oct 16, 2009 2:10:45pm

What, specifically, in the posting is "absolute crap" and what is the scientific basis for labelling it as such? Name calling doesn't make it so.

Charles Johnson Fri, Oct 16, 2009 2:12:07pm

Pielke has no credibility at all as a climate scientist and has been caught in numerous distortions and falsehoods. It's a simple matter to find this out by Googling his name.

FoolsMate Fri, Oct 16, 2009 2:20:50pm

Again, I challenge you to offer a scientific basis for calling "absolute crap" his specific conclusions of the paper in question. This paper does not "deny" global warming it's about the link between global warming and hurricane impacts.

To summarize, claims of linkages between global warming and hurricane impacts are premature for three reasons. First, no connection has been established between greenhouse gas emissions and the observed behavior of hurricanes . . . Second, the peer-reviewed literature reflects that a scientific consensus exists that any future changes in hurricane intensities will likely be small in the context of observed variability . . . And third, under the assumptions of the IPCC, expected future damages to society of its projected changes in the behavior of hurricanes are dwarfed by the influence of its own projections of growing wealth and population . . . While future research or experience may yet overturn these conclusions, the state of the peer-reviewed knowledge today is such that there are good reasons to expect that any conclusive connection between global warming and hurricanes or their impacts will not be made in the near term.

Charles Johnson Fri, Oct 16, 2009 2:25:40pm

I guess it's too difficult to do your own research, so start reading with these links:

[Link: scienceblogs.com...]

There's a lot more. Pielke has zero credibility as a climate scientist.

FoolsMate Fri, Oct 16, 2009 2:41:27pm

You link first to a George Soros funded think tank and then to three articles written by people with an axe to grind -- judging from the person invective, similar to your own -- versus Pielke Jr. None of them address the issue at hand here, which is the link between global warming and hurricanes.

Good ad hominem attacks though, keep it up.

Charles Johnson Fri, Oct 16, 2009 2:43:07pm

I expected more denial and that's what I got.

The links I gave you are backed up with plenty of sources and citations. But you're dismissing them because you'd rather believe a discredited propagandist. Sad.

FoolsMate Fri, Oct 16, 2009 2:48:54pm

Not believing the strong evidence in favor of global warming is a very different proposition from skepticism regarding linkage between global warming and hurricane impacts. Is it your considered opinion that one is a "denier" (evoking Holocaust denial), unless they accept both propositions?

Charles Johnson Fri, Oct 16, 2009 2:50:32pm

re: #9 FoolsMate

Not believing the strong evidence in favor of global warming is a very different proposition from skepticism regarding linkage between global warming and hurricane impacts. Is it your considered opinion that one is a "denier" (evoking Holocaust denial), unless they accept both propositions?

No, it invokes "climate change denier." It has nothing to do with Holocaust denial, and that is a very dishonest tactic to try to respond to valid points with.

You didn't even read those links, did you?

FoolsMate Fri, Oct 16, 2009 2:59:41pm

re: #10 Charles

I did read the links. They bring up some serious issues with Pielke Jr. that I am looking into. I need some time to follow up, fair enough? I do generally tend to dismiss criticism couched in such personal attacks such as "I have made it pretty clear before that I am no fan of Roger Pielke Jr. Everytime I stick my nose in there the smell seems to get a little worse." because experience tells me such criticisms are usually not objective.

None of them however dealt with hurricanes/GW linkages.

I do think the use of the "climate denier" is generally used to evoke Holocaust denial, intentionally, though your rationale may be different.

FoolsMate Fri, Oct 16, 2009 3:15:32pm

BTW you never answered the question: does one necessarily need to believe in a link between GW and hurricane impacts or else be a "denier"?

Mad Prophet Ludwig Sun, Oct 18, 2009 7:36:34pm

re: #12 FoolsMate

BTW you never answered the question: does one necessarily need to believe in a link between GW and hurricane impacts or else be a "denier"?

Why as a matter of fact yes.

Let me ask you a basic question...

Since the atmosphere is a fluid - all gasses are fluids - if you were to put more energy into the fluid, do you believe that it would become more active?

The answer to that question, if you know the 1st and 0th law of thermodynamics is yes.

The bottom line is that a warmer atmosphere that is seeking a new equilibrium, must have more storms.

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