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1 lostlakehiker  Sat, Oct 16, 2010 8:08:33pm

It's a good idea to compile a collection of photos illustrating climate change. But the narrative needs to be drawn carefully. One reason the Colorado river does not run to the sea these days may be climate change, but another may be that we extract a lot of it for irrigation. All of it, in fact. :-)

There is a lot of evidence. Adding a sketchy case to a batch of strong cases, on the theory that more is always better, is a mistake. Denialists can fasten on that one photo and make a more convincing [not better, there are no good denialist arguments] case than without that gift to the other side.

2 Almost Killed by Space Hookers  Mon, Oct 18, 2010 5:54:34am

Excellent Post CL! People need to see with their own eyes how much is changing. When one pauses a moment and considers that past climate shifts, caused by orbital variations and other geological processes generally take thousands of years, yet, we are already seeing dramatic changes within our own lifetimes, it should be terrifying.

re: #1 lostlakehiker

I hear your point, and you are correct, but you are certainly quibbling too much in the case of the Colorado river. The entire thing is drying up and has been steadily for the past several decades, as there is less and less melt water to feed it. The parts that we divert are drying up too, and this is one of the first really major climate shifts in the US that will happen soon and be catastrophic for American citizens.

3 CuriousLurker  Mon, Oct 18, 2010 8:15:30am

re: #1 lostlakehiker

Thanks for the info regarding irrigation and the heads up about denialists. So, okay, if the Colorado River Delta photos might be misunderstood, then maybe someone should explain more (as both you & Ludwig have done—thank you both for that).

I think that for a lot of people, like myself, scientific data is intimidating. My last contact with anything even remotely scientific was probably in biology class in high school 30 years ago, so unless something is explained to me in very clear & simple terms, I have a hard time wrapping my head around it.

I know this will probably horrify those of you who understand & have an ongoing interest in science (or who are actual scientists), but for the rest of us, accepting things like AGW is sort of like religion—i.e. we believe it as a matter of faith in the messenger (or disbelieve it due to lack of faith, as the case may be).

I've tried to understand AGW, but it's so politicized and there is so much data that it becomes confusing and I give up in frustration. It doesn't help that a lot of the data is in the form of graphs, charts and tabular data, or photos of things like smokestacks, OR it is described using terms/concepts I don't fully understand.

For instance, take this slideshow on the EPA's website. It has a couple of nice, easily digestible info graphics and side-by-side photos illustrating dramatic changes, but the sight of all the charts & graphs makes my eyes glaze over. I need more pictures, more engaging copy, and simpler explanations. Maybe even a little bit of interactivity.

I think that in many ways AGW parallels the whole Islam is/isn't compatible with Western society thing. In both cases members of a community are trying to get a message out, but either they aren't being heard, aren't delivering the message in a way people can understand, or the issue has been so politicized and the opposition so strident that some folks won't believe anything they say regardless.

Of course, failure to get out the message about AGW has more serious & immediate global consequences, which makes the need to deliver the message quickly & effectively all the more critical. (Though I'm certain Pam Geller & Robert Spencer would have people believe that that stealth jihadis sneaking around trying to impose sharia is the more immediate threat. :-))

All that is leading up to my final point: I think members of the scientific community need to reach out directly to people through blogs like this one where people can get to know (and trust) them on a personal basis, and where they have a forum to explain the basics and can make themselves available to people who have honest questions or doubts.

I commend people like Ludwig who are making an effort to do exactly that, because I know how tough & time consuming it can be.

4 CuriousLurker  Mon, Oct 18, 2010 8:19:58am

re: #2 LudwigVanQuixote

I'm glad you liked the post, Ludwig—I was hoping you'd see it and comment.

Thanks for the additional explanation about less melt water with regard to the Colorado River drying up. That's useful to know in case of push-back, which I'm (sadly) utterly ill-equipped to provide.

5 CuriousLurker  Mon, Oct 18, 2010 8:27:53am

re: #4 CuriousLurker

I'm glad you liked the post, Ludwig—I was hoping you'd see it and comment.

Thanks for the additional explanation about less melt water with regard to the Colorado River drying up. That's useful to know in case of push-back, which as I'm (sadly) utterly ill-equipped to provide a knowledgeable defense of anything related to AGW.

PIMF: Need. More. Coffee.

6 Almost Killed by Space Hookers  Mon, Oct 18, 2010 9:05:37am

re: #3 CuriousLurker

I think that for a lot of people, like myself, scientific data is intimidating. My last contact with anything even remotely scientific was probably in biology class in high school 30 years ago, so unless something is explained to me in very clear & simple terms, I have a hard time wrapping my head around it.

Many people are in that position. No one can know everything. No one person can even know everything that human beings have figured out. Because of that, something that everyone needs to work on developing are skills that check to see if some scientific claim "rings true." It isn't that you need to be able to calculate the orbit of a satellite for example. It is sufficient to understand that a satellite has to be moving very fast in order to maintain its orbit, so if someone told you something that would mean that satellites are moving slowly, you would instantly know they were full of crap. For example, in the case of AGW, I recently posted a video that had two people do a table top experiment that showed that having more CO2 in your air means it must get warmer when you hit it with IR light - and in fact, both jars, in both experiments got substantially warmer. Again, you do not need to be able to calculate exactly by how much, to know that doubling or quadrupling the amount we have in the atmosphere must heat up the Earth.

I know this will probably horrify those of you who understand & have an ongoing interest in science (or who are actual scientists), but for the rest of us, accepting things like AGW is sort of like religion—i.e. we believe it as a matter of faith in the messenger (or disbelieve it due to lack of faith, as the case may be).

This is the greatest challenge that scientists face in trying to deal with anything scientific that has become politicized. People want to believe things they like and don't want to believe things they do not like. Science is most assuredly not religion however. All of the evidence is there for anyone who wants to look. Everything always comes back to the very real nuts and bolts of what the actual physical world is doing in ways that can be verified.

Are people willing to look, and on a deeper level, have they exercised the mental muscles lately to know how to look? Science is not about hearing lists of facts. It is an active engaging process where the implications of facts are put together to make consistent pictures. It is not a history book, but rather more of a murder mystery. Clues come in and the culprit is identified. It is something active that you engage in and reason through. However, science is taught as yet another story to memorize - something passive. As such, it becomes yet another thing to be cynical about when someone lies to you, like ghost stories, or tooth faeries.

The problem of course, is that charlatans claim the mantle of science for their own ends. The trust that people might place in experts is eroded by the latest "scientifically proven" fad diet.

This is even further complicated by shoddy reporting where controversies are generated to create drama that does not really exist in the scientific community. As far as the legitimate scientific community is concerned, everyone gets what the notion of a GHG is for example and that CO2 is one.

The thing for you to do is to look for the basics and see if what is being said rings true with the basics. If someone says something doesn't make sense, ask.

For example, AGW deniers like to make up all sorts of stuff about CO2. Just ask them, since you know and have seen that it absorbs IR and gets hotter when it does, how it is possible that all the teratons of extra CO2 we put in the atmosphere are doing nothing.

7 CuriousLurker  Mon, Oct 18, 2010 9:19:39am

re: #6 LudwigVanQuixote

Thanks for the great answer. I'll have to come back later tonight when work phone calls & emails aren't interrupting so I can write a better response.

8 Almost Killed by Space Hookers  Mon, Oct 18, 2010 9:20:45am

re: #3 CuriousLurker

I've tried to understand AGW, but it's so politicized and there is so much data that it becomes confusing and I give up in frustration. It doesn't help that a lot of the data is in the form of graphs, charts and tabular data, or photos of things like smokestacks, OR it is described using terms/concepts I don't fully understand.

So here is a fabulous resource written at an "everyday" level.

[Link: earthguide.ucsd.edu...]

This is a full course written at the freshman level from UCSD.

I think that in many ways AGW parallels the whole Islam is/isn't compatible with Western society thing. In both cases members of a community are trying to get a message out, but either they aren't being heard, aren't delivering the message in a way people can understand, or the issue has been so politicized and the opposition so strident that some folks won't believe anything they say regardless.

Well here we get into the entire whom do you trust aspect of this. Do you trust actual practicing Muslims who are obviously educated and decent floks about what their own religion says and does not say, or do you trust Fox News?

By the same standard, do you trust the legitimate scientific community, or do you trust Fox news?

Of course, there is an even deeper difference. Debates about beliefs can go on forever without resolution. It is easy to color language of belief or to take pieces of a doctrine out of context. This is so both by the practitioners of the religion and those on the outside. It is very easy for any charlatan to make what he will out of any faith - and if the message has the right mix of hatred and superiority, it will attract the basest and most vile sorts.

For certain, the Islam of someone from Hamas or the Taliban is not the Islam of an educated, kind hearted person. The Christianity of Fred Phelps, or Sarah Palin, is not the Christianity of Mother Theresa. Could you see either of those dedicated to a giving life of helping others in need? The Judaism of the rasha who assassinated Itzak Rabin is not the Judaism of the Rambam.

But with science at least, all of those conflicting voices who represent the best and the worst of us in the field off religion, are always secondary to the hard data. If you believe that God made the Universe according to His will, then you must believe that all natural phenomena are according to His will. As a result, the final arbiter in science, is God Himself. Paradoxically, with religion, the final arbiter of what people think God said, is always men.

Of course, failure to get out the message about AGW has more serious & immediate global consequences, which makes the need to deliver the message quickly & effectively all the more critical. (Though I'm certain Pam Geller & Robert Spencer would have people believe that that stealth jihadis sneaking around trying to impose sharia is the more immediate threat. :-))

Well said.

All that is leading up to my final point: I think members of the scientific community need to reach out directly to people through blogs like this one where people can get to know (and trust) them on a personal basis, and where they have a forum to explain the basics and can make themselves available to people who have honest questions or doubts.

I commend people like Ludwig who are making an effort to do exactly that, because I know how tough & time consuming it can be.

Thank you so much!

9 Almost Killed by Space Hookers  Mon, Oct 18, 2010 10:03:58am

re: #7 CuriousLurker

Thanks for the great answer. I'll have to come back later tonight when work phone calls & emails aren't interrupting so I can write a better response.

I really think this is an awesome conversation. I hope you don't mind that I have turned it into a post of its own.

10 CuriousLurker  Mon, Oct 18, 2010 10:09:51am

re: #9 LudwigVanQuixote

I really think this is an awesome conversation. I hope you don't mind that I have turned it into a post of its own.

I don't mind at all! That's the best part about the pages; they're quieter and allow more time for thoughtful, extended conversations.

11 Decatur Deb  Mon, Oct 18, 2010 10:16:11am

re: #10 CuriousLurker

I don't mind at all! That's the best part about the pages; they're quieter and allow more time for thoughtful, extended conversations.

I had set aside yesterday morning to do that with LVQ's large pages, but lost them somewhere in the buttons. Will try again, might be an OS/browser issue.

12 Almost Killed by Space Hookers  Mon, Oct 18, 2010 10:39:19am

re: #11 Decatur Deb

I had set aside yesterday morning to do that with LVQ's large pages, but lost them somewhere in the buttons. Will try again, might be an OS/browser issue.

Just go to my post and they are all there at the bottom in recent posts.

13 CuriousLurker  Mon, Oct 18, 2010 11:57:27am

re: #11 Decatur Deb

In addition to what LVQ said, you can also get to all of a user's pages by:

1.) Clicking on their nic when they have a page listed in the pages sidebar

2.) Going to the main pages page at http://littlegreenfootballs.com/pages and typing in the username in the "Author" field in the search box on the right

3.) Typing littlegreenfootballs.com/pages/username into your address bar

You can then filter based on subject, date, etc.

Here are all of LVQ's pages: [Link: littlegreenfootballs.com...]

14 Almost Killed by Space Hookers  Mon, Oct 18, 2010 6:07:07pm

re: #13 CuriousLurker

Thank you!

15 CuriousLurker  Fri, Oct 22, 2010 10:07:33am

re: #6 LudwigVanQuixote

re: #8 LudwigVanQuixote

Thanks you soooo much for the detailed answers and helpful comparisons. The info at UCSD is great!

I apologize for not getting back here with a proper response sooner, but this week has been really hectic work-wise (and I got sidetracked by your other pages ;-)).


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