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1 freetoken  Fri, Oct 7, 2011 5:12:09am

He sounds a bit dramatic, doesn't he?

It should be noted that the world today is interconnected in ways that weren't even imagined till a couple of decades ago. As such, I'm not surprised that we are seeing a globally coupled financial maelstrom.

2 dragonfire1981  Fri, Oct 7, 2011 5:18:50am

re: #1 freetoken

He sounds a bit dramatic, doesn't he?

It should be noted that the world today is interconnected in ways that weren't even imagined till a couple of decades ago. As such, I'm not surprised that we are seeing a globally coupled financial maelstrom.

I agree. Interconnection can be a good thing, but it can also lead to increased vulnerabilities when problems in the system arise.

3 (I Stand By What I Said Whatever It Was)  Fri, Oct 7, 2011 5:20:08am

re: #1 freetoken

He does sound dramatic. Maybe it's because the situation is dramatic, maybe because that's how he sounds important and needed, maybe both, maybe something else.

Pretty much every national government today is committing financial fraud by issuing "easy" money. Bad debt to pay off bad debt, a global phenomenon of bad faith. If things get too tight in one corner, funds get transfered internationally, a merry-go-round of inflation: There is your interconnection – bad debt contagion. Average folk with small savings or people spending most of their earnings on basic stuff like food will food the bill. How long can it continue? How to get out of it? When do some big lenders stop lending and demand being payed back in full?

4 Chrysicat  Fri, Oct 7, 2011 5:41:15am

re: #3 000G

And your solution? It doesn't perchance rhyme with "peachy murrency", does it?

5 (I Stand By What I Said Whatever It Was)  Fri, Oct 7, 2011 6:03:37am

Huh? Peachy?

No, I don't have any solutions.

6 Bob Dillon  Fri, Oct 7, 2011 7:32:23am

[Link: www.amazon.com...]

This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly

I would say that her [Carmen Reinhart's] book with Ken Rogoff on debt crises and financial crises is an extraordinary piece of work. -- eral Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, speaking before the House Budget Committee (6/9/2010)

[E]ssential reading . . . both for its originality and for the sobering patterns of financial behaviour it reveals. -- Economist

Reinhart and Rogoff have compiled an impressive database, which covers eight centuries of government debt defaults from around the world. They have also collected statistics on inflation rates from every country where information is available and on banking crises and international capital flows over the past couple of centuries. This lengthy historical study gives what they call a 'panoramic view' of the unending cycle of boom and bust, showing how claims that 'this time is different' are invariably proven wrong. . . . This Time Is Different doesn't simply explain what went wrong in our most recent crisis. This book also provides a roadmap of how things are likely to pan out in the years to come. . . . This Time Is Different is an important addition to the literature of financial history. -- Edward Chancellor, Wall Street Journal

Everyone working on economic policy should own This Time is Different and open it for a bracing blast of sobriety when things seem to be going well. -- Greg Ip, Washington Post

The authors use copious amounts of data . . . to make the compelling case that any well-informed person should have seen the Great Recession coming. The essence of their book is that while financial crises come in different varieties, they are not mysteriously born of undersea earthquakes, but frequently occurring events that can be spotted and even controlled if politicians and regulators know what to look for. -- Devin Leonard, New York Times

This Time is Different takes a Sergeant Friday, just-the-facts-ma'am approach: before we start theorizing, let's take a hard look at what history tells us. One side benefit of this approach is that the current book manages to be both extremely useful to professional economists and accessible to the intelligent lay reader. The Reinhart-Rogoff approach has already paid off handsomely in making sense of current events. -- Robin Wells and Paul Krugman, New York Review of Books

Professor Rogoff and his longtime collaborator Carmen Reinhart . . . know more about the history of financial crises than anyone alive. The pair have just published their broad survey of financial crises, This Time is Different. In an era when most 'analysts' rely on maybe 30 or 40 years' worth of financial history--and then only that of the U.S.--the authors' knowledge of financial crises and government bond defaults going back to the Spanish empire and before offers a richer perspective. -- Brett Arends, Wall Street Journal

[T]he definitive book on financial crises. -- Steven Pearlstein, Washington Post

Two top-notch economists provide a clear and interesting explanation of why economic crises keep occurring. Broadly speaking, downturns such as the one we are recovering from are historically associated with characteristics that should sound quite familiar to today's investors. -- David Schwartz, Financial Times

The four most dangerous words in finance are 'this time is different.' Thanks to this masterpiece by Carmen Reinhart at the University of Maryland and Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard, no one can doubt this again. . . . The authors have put an immense amount of work into collecting the data financial institutions needed if they were to have any chance of making quantitative risk management work. -- Martin Wolf, Financial Times

Here's a deep and rewarding assignment for all of you, young and old, poor and rich, bullish and bearish. Retire to a quiet spot with a copy of This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly.


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