Jobless Claims in U.S. Fell to Lowest Level in Four Years - Bloomberg
I belong to the school of thought that believes Presidents have a relatively slight direct impact on the economy. With an estimated policy lag of up to 4 years, Presidents cannot really do more in the short term than bolster or reduce confidence, up to a point. Obviously, exceptions are conceivable (according to Popper, that’s what makes this a proper theory!). In any event, the likelihood is increasing that the economy will not be available to the GOP candidate as a talking point during the campaign. That means we will be treated to a campaign that focuses on politicians having a “vision” (always amusing, since I believe their vision extends exactly to their next fundraiser), and veiled accusations by Romney about BHO’s birth, religion, and commitment to America. Romney will be campaigning to the GOP core and has already lost most independent voters. I have been speaking to some small business owners, and they lean Romney because they perceive a heightened tax burden under BHO over the past few years. I don’t think that constituency was ever primarily Democratic or committed independent anyway; most admitted to having voted Republican for the past several presidential elections.