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The post debate poll which showed Romney winning 67% to 25% used a very skewed sample.
If you look at the crosstabs, the entire sample was composed of White, Over 50, Southerners.
CNN doesn’t indicate this in the story and simply claims that the sample was 37% Dem and 33% GOP.
5 comments
1 |
Timmeh Thu, Oct 4, 2012 8:07:16am |
I don't think that's quite correct.
If you look at the first question for example (page 8), it says that 25% thought that Obama won, and 67% thought that Romney won (of the total). But if you look at the figures for whites, it is a little different: 20% thought Obama won and 71% thought that Romney won. So there must have been some non-whites in the sample. Otherwise the two numbers would be exactly the same.
The "N/A" probably just means that the sample size is too small to report (it would have a big margin of error).
If you look at the "favorability" thing, though, it seems that this was a fairly pro-Romney sample to begin with, compared to the national average. In most polls I've seen, Obama has a higher favorability than Romney, but in this one it was reversed. And the numbers for both candidates barely budged between before and after the debate.
| 2 |
jc717 Thu, Oct 4, 2012 8:38:38am |
re: #1 Timmeh
I don't think that's quite correct.
If you look at the first question for example (page 8), it says that 25% thought that Obama won, and 67% thought that Romney won (of the total). But if you look at the figures for whites, it is a little different: 20% thought Obama won and 71% thought that Romney won. So there must have been some non-whites in the sample. Otherwise the two numbers would be exactly the same.
The "N/A" probably just means that the sample size is too small to report (it would have a big margin of error).
If you look at the "favorability" thing, though, it seems that this was a fairly pro-Romney sample to begin with, compared to the national average. In most polls I've seen, Obama has a higher favorability than Romney, but in this one it was reversed. And the numbers for both candidates barely budged between before and after the debate.
That's a good point. There had to be at least some non-whites in the sample. If you look at the details for over/under 50 and region, it seems that the majority of the sample was over 50 Southerners. Still very skewed and not disclosed in the story.
| 3 |
Sophia77 Thu, Oct 4, 2012 9:11:46am |
Oh. So you start with a GOP leaning base then are surprised when they support the GOP.
| 4 |
Charles Johnson Thu, Oct 4, 2012 11:14:59am |
Please note that CNN recently hired right wing hack Frank Luntz to do election analysis. I wouldn't be surprised to discover he had a hand in this.
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