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1 1Peter G1  Jul 2, 2014 8:53:50am

Hmm. It is certainly progress. Here is why you are wrong however: forty percent of the oil extracted from the ground is not used for energy. It is the basic raw material for an industrial society. Virtually everything we make that isn’t made of wood or metal or animal hides or stuff like cotton is made from oil. What we don’t have is an alternate sources of hundreds of millions of tons of raw materials or alternative processes for using it if we did.

Frankly Elon is a bit of a huckster. There aren’t any electric powered farm tractors or tractor trailers that are going to deliver food to you. And there isn’t going to be until someone invents more than a few currently non existing technologies. There is no battery with the necessary energy density to do more than what Elon already does which is to sell an expensive grocery getter for rich people who can afford to drop a small fortune on a new battery pack every few years. And that isn’t going to get cheaper with volume production because the supplies of lithium suitable for extraction are already under demand pressure. Me, I’m betting on hydrogen. It has much more potential.

2 lostlakehiker  Jul 2, 2014 10:04:02am

Energy is rather fungible. Tractors can run on diesel. Buses can run on natural gas. Trains can run on electricity. Home heating can migrate from natural gas or diesel to heat pumps driven by electricity, and in many places, supplemented by passive solar. Most manufacturing can be powered by electricity.

Solar PV at prices competitive with coal is a game changer. China is building new coal-fired plants at a depressing and impressive clip, but she’s also making a lot of progress on PV. Sooner or later that, plus China’s vulnerability to environmental disasters, will click in the heads of the Party leadership and coal will give way to PV. The logic is simple enough—-historically, political upheavals in China are linked to environmental challenges. If the Party can narrow the odds of the latter, it narrows the odds of the former.

In the West, capitalism will drive PV usage ever higher as the price comes down. Right now, and rightly, we’re subsidizing solar. It helps us move up the learning curve. But it won’t be long before solar doesn’t need those training wheels any longer and things really take off.

We will need to modernize the laws governing power transmission lines and utility billing and so on. But government in the US has not had too much trouble finding ways to do what business needs done in order to deploy new technology. (Exception, nuclear power…and that’s a sad story but we can talk about that some other day.)

3 Randall Gross  Jul 2, 2014 10:15:06am

My such pessimism. Come see in 20-30 years. There’s no doubt that we will still be using some form of hydrocarbon fuel for transport (aerospace comes to mind) but the slice of oil is going to shrink and shrink. The plastics you speak of are there because the oil sludge by product that plastics is made from is there and essentially a “free” by product of our energy cycle. It won’t go away, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it largely displaced by more modern materials and materials science.

The point isn’t that oil trucks will go away entirely, it’s that they will become much less common, just as Ice trucks are today.

4 1Peter G1  Jul 2, 2014 2:43:08pm

re: #3 Randall Gross

It’ll have to Randall, shrink I mean. You’ll have to pardon me in this instance for going a bit strong. As soon as I read your second post it became clear that you understand the timelines needed to make these changes in energy diet. I plead habit. I am so used to arguing with people who think the Koch brothers are forcing us all to use oil and that if we just made them go away we wouldn’t need oil anymore.

5 EiMitch  Jul 2, 2014 9:56:49pm

re: #1 1Peter G1

Virtually everything we make that isn’t made of wood or metal or animal hides or stuff like cotton is made from oil. What we don’t have is an alternate sources of hundreds of millions of tons of raw materials or alternative processes for using it if we did.

We’re not quite that dependent on petroleum. Alternatives do exist. Plastics made from biological matter such as soybeans have existed for quite some time. Heck, Henry Ford invested in the soy-based plastic R&D, and showcased how resistant they are to being dinged-up in an accident by smacking a panel with a sledgehammer. It bent, but didn’t break, and popped back into shape with no sign that it ever happened. And thats just one tech among many thats been mothballed by our petro habits.

I have no doubt that as crude-oil production decreases, production of alternative materials will increase.

BTW, the Koch Brothers are being ridiculous. If just a decade ago, they took a quarter of all the money they spend lobbying and instead invested it in the solar and/or wind energy they’ve been opposing, they’d now have more profit to show for that than for what they spent on protecting the status quo. Instead of making a profit wherever they can, they’ve chosen to become short-sighted old buffoons set in their ways. The sooner obsolescence slaps them in the face too hard to resist, the better.


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