i know this is correlation without causation
it’s still fun
and would that it were given yesterday’s 11 national polls with trump averaging 42%

First Read points out the direct correlation between a sitting president’s job rating and his ballot position:

In 1984, Ronald Reagan’s job rating was 58%; he got 58.8% of the vote.
In 1992, George H.W. Bush’s rating was 36%; he got 37.4% of the vote.
In 1996, Bill Clinton’s approval was 56%; he got 49.2% in that three-way race.
In 2004, George W. Bush’s approval was 49%; he got 50.7% of the vote.
And in 2012, Barack Obama’s approval was 49%; he got 51.1% of the vote.

President Trump? His job rating in our most recent national NBC/WSJ poll was 44%.