re: #95 Targetpractice

The professor’s model assumes two things A) that Republicans begin the election with an advantage due to “cycles,” and B) that enthusiasm and turnout in primaries carries over into the general election.

Neither point is foolish on its face, but the enthusiasm and turnout factor in particular is very hard to boil down into a number to plug into a model.

For example, much of this enthusiasm is hot wingnut on wingnut action which has already generated more substantial threats to GOP party unity than I’ve seen in years.

Point A is the one that really worries me. We have never had long stretches of time with one party continuously having the presidency in the US, with the exception of the FDR/Truman era. Sooner rather than later, if the past is any guide, it will be the Republicans’ turn whether or not they are collectively insane.

Perhaps the changing demographics of the presidential year electorate will put an end to this pattern, and I’d certainly be happy to see this happen.