re: #106 i(m)p(each)sos

And I expect he will! There was a Billy Penn article I posted here yesterday about how massive the voter registration surge in Philly has been this year. Over 1.1 million registered voters, which is past the 90% mark of ALL ELIGIBLE VOTERS - and compare that to just over 700,000 votes out of Philly in 2016.

In a city that goes 90% Democratic, that could be a wave of several hundred thousand more Democratic votes this year. And remember Trump only took PA by about 70,000 votes four years ago.

I’ve been spending a lot of time staring at PA election results from 2016, and the longer and harder I stare at them, the more I realize just what a fluke it was that Trump pulled out an EC win at all.

A smidge more turnout in Philadelphia and Clinton would have won the state.

Less active third-party candidates (Johnson got 146,715 votes, Stein got 49,941, and Trump won by 44,292 votes) and Clinton might well have won the state.

It was the narrowest possible way Trump could have squeaked in, and then he somehow ran the table and did it the same way in Michigan and Wisconsin.

The factors are so different this year. I have a lot of confidence that Trump cannot repeat what he did in 2016.