There’s a lot riding on Kavanaugh’s confirmation, for a lot of people.

Somebody picked up Kavanaugh’s tab and wiped out hundreds of thousands of dollars of debt and put him in a million dollar home. And I agree with whoever said earlier that Kavanaugh’s part of the bargain is his vote. Whoever is Sugar Daddying Kavanaugh wants him in.

Evangelicals have explicitly threatened to stay home for the midterms if Kavanaugh is not confirmed, which would make an election where the GOP’s prospects are pretty bad already even worse. Congress wants him it at all costs.

Trump sees Kavanaugh as a weird kind of kindred spirit, a bond built on sexual assault. He’ll go to bat for this asshole because he’s Trump’s kind of asshole. Trump wants him in because he’ll see it as some weird vindication for his own fuckups.

They’re ride or die at this point, and Kavanaugh will get his up or down vote. But by the time that vote rolls around - and if Avenatti’s witness is as explosive as he’s hyping it to be, that Friday vote won’t happen - Kavanaugh may end up being so toxic that McConnell won’t be able to wrangle the votes.

And if they do end up bulling it through in the face of multiple accusers, they’re dead meat in the midterms. I have to wonder how loyal some senators will be once their job is on the line.