For anyone worried that the race may be “tightening”, Trump’s odds of winning on fivethirtyeight.com remain at 12%, the same as on October 17. In contrast, on October 31, 2016, 8 days out from the election, the race had been tightening for two weeks, and Trump’s odds had already improved to 25%, on their way to peaking at 35%. Wikileaks and James Comey aren’t riding to Trump’s rescue, and he now has a record of profound failure he can’t defend with lies.