re: #187 DangerMan

Markets and businesses want consistency. Stability. It makes things predictable because you can plan out how your future quarter purchases, sales, and costs will be.

When you’ve got a addled reactionary know nothing in the WH throwing tariffs against the wall to see what sticks, you suddenly find your costs, purchases, and sales all over the place as suppliers and buyers are scrambling to hedge against cost spikes and avoid paying more than they have to. Some will pad inventory now to wait things out, or others will defer buys until later. Consumers will shift spending, or hold off to avoid costs too.

All of it means that the economy, which was already slowing due to uncertainties finds itself weaker than it should be - it’s a self-fulfilling response.

Brexit, the violence in Hong Kong, and tariffs all combine to be a shit show and the inverted yield curve is another sign that businesses see a recession coming. Trump’s trade war doesn’t help, and is also slowing things down too (for reasons stated above).