Fed Survey: The Economy is Mending

SixDegrees9/09/2009 12:45:42 pm PDT

re: #223 snapped shot

You mean kinda how you glossed over the charts I linked to, which pretty much puts a kibosh on the whole “Things are Looking Sunny Again” economic report you posted in *this* thread?


(Sorry, theheat. Had ta do it!)


I don’t see a whole lot of sunshine in the report Charles linked.

The article you linked to concerns unemployment data, which is a trailing indicator; it won’t turn downwards until a recovery has already gotten well underway. The classic measure of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth in GDP; given that GDP growth is nearly always positive, it’s more difficult to say when a recession has ended, but a return to positive GDP growth for a couple of consecutive quarters is generally a good sign. Most data seems to suggest that the the current quarter will show some growth; this is a positive sign.

GDP growth will have to remain positive for several quarters, however, before companies begin hiring again. It will be quite a while before the unemployment rate begins to drop. As already noted, however, a recovery will have been well underway for some time before that happens.