Good morning folks… very interesting analysis of the Obama administration’s response to North Korea’s recent nuclear & missile tests.

Clinton’s North Korea trial balloon may crash

U.S. officials have spent the past two weeks attempting to convince the Chinese government to cooperate with the Proliferation Security Initiative WMD interdiction program. However, the fact that the U.S. has nothing to announce in that regards might hint that they have made little progress thus far with the Chinese.

In a weekend television interview, Secretary Clinton explained how a lack of Chinese cooperation could result in a regional arms race that would not be in China’s interest. The fact that she is explaining this to the U.S. viewing public may indicate that the Obama administration is preparing its reasoning for future military actions it intends to take. Such a public preparation campaign also increases pressure on the Chinese to cooperate.

This is a risky course for the Obama administration. It is gradually committing itself to some sort of military interdiction option against North Korea. But it has not yet secured Chinese cooperation with the venture. It has now gone public with its intentions both to prepare the U.S. public and to pressure the Chinese.

This overt course risks strong resistance by the Chinese and, of course, military brinkmanship from North Korea against Seoul, which would test the South Korean public’s limits.

Will the U.S. now see this course through with a risk of a military clash and a break with the Chinese? Or will the Obama team ultimately have to back down with consequences for its North Korea and Iran policies?