re: #244 Shiplord Kirel

I think the worst case scenario is a widely scattered but intense outburst of violence and insurrection from RWNJ militias and, much more significantly, ad hoc right wing vigilantes. The latter are not formal militias with rolls, rank, etc. but neither are they completely unorganized. They know each other from social media, gun stores, shooting ranges, and some churches. Insurrection is one of their favorite subjects when they get together.
This is most likely to happen in response to some traumatic event; a shootout with the Feds that leaves a large number of militia dead, a major assassination, or, most regrettably, an act of terrorism by some misguided fool like the one who tried to shoot up the Family Research Council office in DC in 2012.

If half the known extremist militias take part, and if they can attract 20 violent RWNJ vigilantes for each formal militia member, we could be talking about 50,000 or more committed insurrectionists, that is, the ones who will shoot. Millions of RWNJs will cheer from the sidelines or participate in ways short of using their numerous weapons, but most have too much to lose to stay with it once law enforcement can organize a response and troops begin to arrive.

A rough prediction of the outcome, based on this level of participation:

6-7000 fatalities (90% targeted groups, 8-9% RWNJs, 1-2% law enforcement, small number of military). Insurrectionists may also target emergency and medical personnel. educators, religious “heretics” like gay-friendly churches, media personnel, and anyone else perceived as sympathetic to the targeted “others.”

50,000 injuries

500,000 arrests, with 10-12000 getting hard prison time and up to 100 the death penalty.

Property damage, probably worse than 9-11.

It wouldn’t be the civil war coveted by right-wing fanatics, but it would be a national tauma of historic dimensions, with recriminations going on for centuries.

What do you think would be a trigger? An assassination (attempt) at the Pope and/or Obama? Major domestic terrorist attack? That’s what worries me at this point considering the 9/23 hype in Outer Wingnuttia as we speak :(