re: #24 ProLifeLiberal

I could also see it as possible, considering how closed Iran is right now, that the Government could be beginning to do a final plunge, and everyone is getting out before things get real crappy.

The government of Iran may be unpopular, but their brownshirts (Basijis) and their SS (Guardians of the Revolution) are too powerful to be overthrown by the forces of an impromptu people’s militia. They rule, and the rest submit because the alternative is death.

The only way, other than outright war, that this regime might fall, would be if oil prices tanked, or the regime’s revenue tanked for some other reason, and it found itself unable to pay the sweet salaries and perks that shore up the loyalty of the regime maintenance forces.

What I see as the most likely near term trigger for instability in Iran is the situation in Syria. There, the regime is indeed running low on cash. The state security forces are flaking away, defecting to the opposition. Turkey is ever more sympathetic to the resistance. The Arab league has weighed in. It’s entirely possible that Assad may lose power in the next few months.

From the point of view of Iran, though, that would be the loss of a big military asset. Much of their short range rocket capability against Israel rests on possession of Syria as a fire base. Lebanon, if it came to be isolated on all sides by governments not allied to Iran, would not be a comparable alternative.

What will Iran do? What kind of risk is the leadership, whoever it may be that’s really calling the shots, prepared to take? I’m guessing here, but one guess is that they might start a war right now-ish rather than see their Syrian piece removed from the chessboard.

I give it a five percent chance. Far from zero, but not at all likely. The move would, after all, be a serious mistake.