re: #267 Killgore Trout

Here’s the actual poll, which includes various breakouts.

Hoffman leads comfortably among GOPers, who make up the majority of the district’s voters. Owens gets a plurality of votes among Independents, but that’s not enough to give him a win IMO.

Favorable/unfavorable favors Hoffman (47-33), while Owens is viewed unfavorably by more people than those who view him favorably (37-38).

606 likely voters, margin of error is 4.

Here’s what has to happen for Owens to win:
Clinton/Essex/Franklin/Fulton/Hamilton must vote overwhelmingly for Owens and modest turnout in Madison/Oneida/Oswego for Hoffman gives Owens the win; Jefferson/Lewis/St. Lawrence are toss up with both candidates even.

Clinton/Essex/Franklin/Fulton/Hamilton already heavily favor Owens, but he has to do extremely well there in his base to win.

For Hoffman to win, he has to do the opposite of Owens; he has to win with good turnout in Madison, Oneida, and Oswego, while hoping Clinton, Essex, Franklin, Fulton, and Hamilton don’t show at the polls, while the muddle of Jefferson, Lewis, and St. Lawrence remain a tossup.

Another scenario puts the onus on Hoffman and Owens to get the toss up votes in Jefferson, Lewis, and St. Lewis to break to them. From the cross tabs, it appears that Scozzafava’s support in those three counties split evenly between Owens and Hoffman.