Romney made a huge mistake by predicting he’d win Iowa. Top three, yes, that’d be confident without sounding arrogant. Iowa is never going to be his home turf, and there was no real evidence that he had a convincing lead, just a few polls that were taken that showed him a few percentage points ahead.

If he doesn’t win, Paul, Santorum and Gingrich will all spin it as evidence that Romney is weak, Then all bets are off. Because it will be effectively a 4 way race.