NATE SILVER10:08 PM
We’ve tried not to focus on the national implications of OH-12 so much tonight. For the reason why, listen to Monday’s podcast — basically, we think there are a lot more precise indicators of both the national environment and individual districts now, such that we don’t gain as much from the useful-but-noisy metric that is special elections. To be clear, though, a photo-finish for Republicans is not good news for them tonight. If similar districts around the country are photo-finishes on Nov. 7, Republicans will almost certainly lose the House