re: #333 Sir John Barron

So I did a thing and lined up all of Hillary’s “safe” states and I have her at 264 EV.* For the moment I’m not giving her Nevada, NC or FL. She will need to win one of those states.

*I’m assuming she carries PA, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Colorado, NH, VA, gets 2 of Maine’s “at-large” EVs (Maine awards 2 others by CD). I’m not giving her the one Nebraska EV which is by CD but neither that or Maine’s 2 CD votes will matter much. She will need to win Nevada, or NC or FL anyway.

So I think that’s where we are.

My take is—no Democrat is going to lose the Kerry map, especially against Trump. Adding VA and NM, which have become pretty solid Democratic, at least on the Presidential level, that’s 264. NV, CO, IA, OH, NC, or FL would put Clinton over the top. She only has to win one of them, Trump has to win all of them.