re: #33 goddamnedfrank

So much of what’s swirling around Nate right now seems to get back to EV’s column the other day: 538 is dependent upon being seen as viable in the long-term, and that means driving up traffic. I think Nate’s model is fundamentally sound, but the “tweaking” he’s done this year is less with an eye towards improving its predictive power and more towards creating these wild swings in the trend lines that fuel people’s anxiety. Reviving his 2014 spat with Sam Wang and his general defensiveness about his model is rooted in that need to be seen as viable, in the need for 538 to be seen as having a future beyond Election Night.

In short, Nate’s predictions will probably be right to the same degree as his past ones were. But all the drama that he’s drummed up is going to bite his ass immediately after the Election ends.