re: #277 engineer cat

if the difference in the stock market and monthly employment numbers are as much better four years from now as they are now from four years ago, we will be in the biggest economic boom you ever saw

There isn’t going to be any big stock market boom. Price-earnings ratios are in line with historical norms now. Earnings aren’t going to double, especially not after-tax earnings. Dividend and capital gains returns from stocks will become less attractive as the tax laws change. All this means that the market will have a headwind.

Look for fewer full time employees in four years than we have now, and fewer people participating in the labor market. Whether you call it unemployment, or whether those not working end up classified as disabled, discouraged, retired early, or what have you, the real unemployment rate is in a secular rise. The modest recovery we will probably see will not much offset that trend.