re: #463 Obdicut

The fact that you’re already constraining this to a close election is admitting that the scenario you’re talking about is not an all-inclusive one.

Are you talking about a probability distribution function?

Or are you just referring to the fact that the larger the number of samples, the more perfect the distribution will eventually be? As in, if you were the nine billionth voter there’s be a much stronger chance that the distribution was closer to the underlying probability?

You also appear to be treating every vote as if it is the final vote. Do you get that?

You asked for the math. I gave it. Of course, if an election is a tie save 1, then every last voter who voted for the winner can be seen as the deciding vote. So, what does it matter who votes last?

The original question, how much influence do I have, seems to me to come down to this: what are the chances that the national result would have been different if I had gone into that booth and voted differently, all else held the same, in an election where the general sense going in was that it’s going to be tight? (If it’s not going to be tight, then no one anywhere has any chance that their vote, all else held equal, might have decided it.)

You are good at debate. If you work at it, you can “win” this conversation. But I know my profession. You might ask Ludwig if I’m making sense.