538 is sticking with their model, but I keep seeing tweets like this:

Just got done working the polls for a mayoral candidate here in Virginia Beach, Va, and the voting is on track at that polling place to match, if not beat 2016. LOTS of people voting and I hope it keeps up. #Election2018 #VoteToday

— 👾Joe Hill 🐙 (@vintagejoehill) November 6, 2018

… which suggests that voter turnout has been under counted in models.