re: #449 HappyWarrior

I think it’s that too. He got a lot of publicity last election and praise. As I said, I still appreciate his analysis but there’s just something I think he’s missing here with his analysis. I personally don’t think you change states that dramatically especially with early voting at a historical high this election.

I think people who disregard what he’s seeing and saying are sticking their heads into the sand. Complacency is the enemy, people. I’d far rather people be a little spooked by Silver’s model and urge people to vote rather than look at Wang’s model and assume everything’s okay.

In particular, Nate Silver has been trying to tell us that the undecided vote is still pretty high. The latest Florida poll, for example, has about 4% of the vote undecided. This is pretty high late in the game. Another 3% are voting for Johnson or Stein - historically, third party candidate support collapses late and those voters ‘return home’. So we have a lot of uncertainty still. 1) Who will undecideds choose? There’s good evidence that many undecideds this year are Republicans who really don’t want to support Trump but either hate Hillary or really care about conservative issues like the Supreme Court. If they go 80-20 for Trump that’s a big deal. 2) Will Johnson voters abandon Johnson, and if so, who will they choose? In most years, the libertarian candidate draws from the GOP but this year it seems to steal equally from both candidates. 3) Will Stein voters switch votes, and does anyone care? Will the hatred of Clinton from the democratic primary keep that 1% from going home? Will they go to Trump?

I still think the fundamentals of the race favor Clinton, and I’m bullish on Clinton picking up Florida, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, which is effectively the ball game. But Silver is absolutely correct in saying that this is not a done deal. We need to worry about the fence sitters, and we need to do everything we can to bring them home for Clinton.