re: #679 3 wood

I think that is fairly accurate. 8% to 10% I’m thinking.

Lots of people are taking on consumer debt with the clunkers program and some of that will default. This Christmas season will be way down. Credit cards are continuing to default. Some people are running out of unemployment benefits, and jobs continue to be destroyed.

There are a lot of people with ARMs that bought in early 2007 (worst financial move ever) that will be resetting in 2010. They are also way underwater on those loans.

I’m also hearing (not sure of the veracity) that there is still a tsunami of commercial real estate foreclosures on the horizon. I do know that the complex that my office is in is over 50% vacant, and the building next to it is as well.

I also have a sneaky suspicion that a lot of the TARP money was not used to deal with “troubled assets” and instead was either “sat on” or used to feed this bogus, bull market.