re: #576 JCM

The Norks can’t win against the US and the South. They can make it bloody. If the flag goes up all the Nork units have preplanned missions, it if comms are cut they launch on their missions. One of those things is to throw everything as rapidly possible into the South.

For us and the south (and China)to preempt the Norks would take a massive build up which would tip them off.

They can make it so bloody that IMO we would quit. They have over 1 million men in their army. The North attacked the South in 1950 with a quarter of that number and almost won when we had basically more troops than we have there now. Granted we and the ROK’s were not expecting an attack (even though we had ample warning), and the North used bunches of Russian T-35/85 tanks that we did not think they had and that were very difficult to stop.

The North can and most likely would obliterate Seoul in the first few minutes of an attack. We can’t stop them from doing that. We can make them pay dearly for it, but we could not stop it. Then about 1 million men come marching over the DMZ. We can stop a bunch of them, but we ain’t going to stop them all. It would most likely end up like late 1950 again and us stopping them short of Pusan and making a stand. There is where I think we might actually just give up and leave.